Weather: Those Results In Full
by John Walker on Jan.06, 2010, under The Rest
So in summary, they got absolutely every prediction incorrect, but it did eventually snow.
Yesterday morning the prediction was that Bath would receive an epic dumping of snow. By mid-afternoon this was stepped up to the South West being put on full alert for the most dangerous snow in living memory, with the highest ranking Met Office warning issued (a warning, we were told, they issued before last year’s floods in the Midlands, that rendered thousands homeless). It was going to disrupt power. It was going to close every road. Then about three hours later we had the cough-cough-oh retractions of this, but still with enough grim warnings of snow that we should still worry, and it would all kick off around 8pm. (This was originally 3pm, then 6pm.) At around 8pm we were told the slightly minimized apocalypse would now be occurring at midnight. But it was going to be at least 10cm. At least.
Come 2am we had nothing. So in contrast with the forecast that morning, the precise opposite of the predictions for following eighteen hours had occurred. Poor London had even more insane forecasting, with at least four complete switcheroos over whether they’d be receiving either no snow at all, or a lethal amount. Hilariously the weatherman this morning attempted to excuse his proclamations of doom by describing the somewhat anticlimactic results as “severe weather by degree.” But no apology.
In the end Bath – or at least my bit of it – has had about 5cm. Which is, again, about as little as you can get and have it settle. It looks wonderful. Outside my window is extremely pretty. Once some RPS posting is complete, it will be Project Snow for as long as my fingers stay attached to my hands. Because I live in a country – and especially a region of that country – that receives snow so incredibly rarely, it’s enough to disrupt everything. All buses in the area are cancelled, the trains have mostly come to a halt, every single school and both universities have shut. And that’s why I wanted this. This is what snow offers us. We aren’t equipped to cope with it, and there’s no reason we should be – it’s the second time in 19 years it’s been a problem. And it’s going to be a problem for approximately one day. (Although, if the forecast is correct – HAHA – tonight’s going to be -7C, which could lead to the entire place freezing into a snow-flavoured lollipop.)
I know a few will say, “See, your complaints were invalid. It did snow.” My complaints were valid. The weather we saw was so far removed from the weather predicted, and even the Met Office were telling me about the heavy snow that had been falling on my head for two hours, long before it happened. They can’t even report the weather that’s currently happening, let alone usefully predict the future. (Another example. Yesterday this snow was going to be rained away. Today it’s going to be frozen in place.)
So here’s my plan: Each weather forecast must begin with a comparison of two maps. The weather they predicted for 24 hours ago. And then the weather that happened 24 hours ago. This is completely fair. Then, should they be so very perceptive and successful, they’ll look brilliant. But more likely when there’s little comparison between the two, it will inject a little humility into their performance, while at the same time providing perspective for the viewer.
January 6th, 2010 on 10:12
Good snowy morning, John!
Your complaints were valid, what probably wasn’t fair was comparing weather forecasts with psychics.
But it’s not important now because, as you wrote: “It looks wonderful. Outside my window is extremely pretty. Once some RPS posting is complete, it will be Project Snow for as long as my fingers stay attached to my hands.”
So have a good time playing with the snow and post pictures of your snowy creations please :)
January 6th, 2010 on 10:20
More of this, please: https:https://botherer.org/2009/02/02/dexters-snow-day/
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to go sledging!
January 6th, 2010 on 13:29
I don’t have any friends to play in the snow with. Ours is more like ice now. There’s an actual frost elemental in the garden.
January 6th, 2010 on 13:53
According to that map you posted yesterday, I think you’ll agree that Southampton was not predicted to receive any snow. As unbelievable as it is, Southampton received a lot of snow. +1 for John Walker vs. The Weather People.
Also as of yesterday you have two RSS feeds for your blog, one through feedburner and one from the site directly. I don’t have a point I just thought I’d bring it to your attention.
January 6th, 2010 on 20:24
“I know a few will say, “See, your complaints were invalid. It did snow.” My complaints were valid. The weather we saw was so far removed from the weather predicted…”
You seem to be the only person in the country who believes the weather forecast is an exact hour-by-hour prediction of exactly what will happen. It’s no wonder you’re so cross. It’s a way of presenting a best guess, it’s there or thereabouts.
Men predict bad snow. Bad snow come. Including – all importantly – on your house. But you want your money back because it’s late and not enough?
Why not go the whole way and become these guys?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/06/cold-snap-climate-sceptics
“and even the Met Office were telling me about the heavy snow that had been falling on my head for two hours, long before it happened.”
Uh?
January 6th, 2010 on 20:29
Robert, they provide AN HOUR BY HOUR PREDICTION. And I’m sick and tired of people claiming they don’t profess to be accurate. They speak in absolute statements, and never retract their mistakes, which are most of the things they say. The Met Office boasts their accuracy readily, and the data is never, ever presented as a “best guess”.
Do you think weather reports only exist as a small picture on the back of a newspaper?
And no, they predicted very bad snow, the worst ever. The snow arrived about 200m to the East, 12 hours later, and that which reached Bath was mild. So no, nothing they said was correct. I predict it will rain one day in the future. Am I a weatherman now?
Re the quote that confuses you. The Met Office’s information explained that heavy snow had been falling for two hours in the past, when no snow at all had fallen. They can’t get the weather that’s already happened correct.
January 7th, 2010 on 03:09
“they provide AN HOUR BY HOUR PREDICTION.”
Which everyone except you seems to know how to interpret. If you understand what a statistical prediction is, you’re fine with it – and you can go to the next level of detail and get those probabilities if it’s important to you.
And if you’re, you know, folk, you just hear a best guess. “It’s going to snow, more or less, sometime soon.”
“They speak in absolute statements”
So you’re now one of those people who thinks every sentence should be tediously qualified with “in my opinion” and concluded with “but that may change”.
No, the weather forecast is a convenient way of presenting a big bunch of uncertainty. Its job is to tell you whether to pack an umbrella. If you expect more than that (and of course you don’t), you’re an idiot.
“The Met Office boasts their accuracy readily, and the data is never, ever presented as a “best guess”.”
Just go one level of complexity and you’ll see percentages. And accuracy that’s measured by how close they are – not “we failed because it didn’t rain at 10 but at noon”.
“And no, they predicted very bad snow, the worst ever. The snow arrived about 200m to the East, 12 hours later, and that which reached Bath was mild. So no, nothing they said was correct.”
Oh, that’s the one that’s driving me mad today. “They say it’s the worst snow ever, well I can’t see it….” They predicted the worst snow ever *where*? Over the whole country. And it’s been pretty bad, in general, hasn’t it?
Oh, I’m probably just cross because I got stranded in Basingstoke two weeks ago.
January 7th, 2010 on 09:52
Yeah, John, you’re a mental. The weather forecast is a large group of well qualified meteorologists best interpretation of the neat future patterns of a massive amount of data based on a chaotic system. It’s not one psychic weatherman on the telly fleecing us with made up guesses. To expect either 100% accurate predictions or abject apologies when those predictions aren’t completely accurate exposes you as a scientifically ignorant dundapate.
Anyway you got your snow. Have fun!
January 7th, 2010 on 09:52
‘near future’ not neat future.
Although I hope we can all share in the dream of a neat future.
January 7th, 2010 on 16:58
I think we can all agree that this picture is very pretty:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/2010007-0107/GreatBritain.A2010007.1150.1km.jpg
January 7th, 2010 on 20:54
John, the forceast was accurate, you just had the map upside down.
January 7th, 2010 on 23:26
I just actually watched a weather forecast for the first time in ages, on the BBC. It was exemplary. It was actually full of all the “probably”s and “chance of”s that we were both thinking weren’t there.
So no, they don’t speak in absolutes at all. Though I still think they may as well.
January 8th, 2010 on 12:07
I’ve been watching forecasts all week in order to write these posts. I can assure you they were delivered in absolutes. I’m not mad.