So no, they don’t speak in absolutes at all. Though I still think they may as well.

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/2010007-0107/GreatBritain.A2010007.1150.1km.jpg

Although I hope we can all share in the dream of a neat future.

Anyway you got your snow. Have fun!

Which everyone except you seems to know how to interpret. If you understand what a statistical prediction is, you’re fine with it – and you can go to the next level of detail and get those probabilities if it’s important to you.

And if you’re, you know, folk, you just hear a best guess. “It’s going to snow, more or less, sometime soon.”

“They speak in absolute statements”

So you’re now one of those people who thinks every sentence should be tediously qualified with “in my opinion” and concluded with “but that may change”.

No, the weather forecast is a convenient way of presenting a big bunch of uncertainty. Its job is to tell you whether to pack an umbrella. If you expect more than that (and of course you don’t), you’re an idiot.

“The Met Office boasts their accuracy readily, and the data is never, ever presented as a “best guess”.”

Just go one level of complexity and you’ll see percentages. And accuracy that’s measured by how close they are – not “we failed because it didn’t rain at 10 but at noon”.

“And no, they predicted very bad snow, the worst ever. The snow arrived about 200m to the East, 12 hours later, and that which reached Bath was mild. So no, nothing they said was correct.”

Oh, that’s the one that’s driving me mad today. “They say it’s the worst snow ever, well I can’t see it….” They predicted the worst snow ever *where*? Over the whole country. And it’s been pretty bad, in general, hasn’t it?

Oh, I’m probably just cross because I got stranded in Basingstoke two weeks ago.

Do you think weather reports only exist as a small picture on the back of a newspaper?

And no, they predicted very bad snow, the worst ever. The snow arrived about 200m to the East, 12 hours later, and that which reached Bath was mild. So no, nothing they said was correct. I predict it will rain one day in the future. Am I a weatherman now?

Re the quote that confuses you. The Met Office’s information explained that heavy snow had been falling for two hours in the past, when no snow at all had fallen. They can’t get the weather that’s already happened correct.

You seem to be the only person in the country who believes the weather forecast is an exact hour-by-hour prediction of exactly what will happen. It’s no wonder you’re so cross. It’s a way of presenting a best guess, it’s there or thereabouts.

Men predict bad snow. Bad snow come. Including – all importantly – on your house. But you want your money back because it’s late and not enough?

Why not go the whole way and become these guys?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/06/cold-snap-climate-sceptics

“and even the Met Office were telling me about the heavy snow that had been falling on my head for two hours, long before it happened.”

Uh?

Also as of yesterday you have two RSS feeds for your blog, one through feedburner and one from the site directly. I don’t have a point I just thought I’d bring it to your attention.